To keep the thesis consistent, I am still comparing with 2004 (technically, at least). The recovery off 2003 Mar lows topped out at 1164 in Q1 2004 and went into small bear channel for a while before breakout eventually. In 2005, 1164 worked nicely as a nice support in 2 out of 3 corrections and was only broken in 2008. So arguably, this would be a nice level to sell into if you believe this thesis of range bound market in 2010. Beyond that, 1217-1226 probably would cap.
For now, may want to sell into 1164 for a range trade down to 1014 (previous 38.2% retracement resistance turned support). This assumes no melt up which could still be possible if people are forced to chase the market.
No comments:
Post a Comment