Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Apple: An Update (Bearish Call was right)

This is an update on my previous blog on Apple on Nov 9 this year (http://tecknicaloutlook.blogspot.sg/2012/11/apple-is-doomed-like-microsoft-of-2000.html). Look at Chart 1. After the breakdown from touching all time high to above USD 700, I argued that it was forming a massive head and shoulder reversal. At the point in time, it would have a last rally which is to form the right shoulder top. The rally ought to go back up to 600-640 and I was right. The recent high was USD 598. This was a good chance to take profits on any existing long positions. Look at Chart 2. Now it has fallen again and is nesting right on the head and shoulder reversal neckline at USD 518. It may just consolidate around here before heading lower. My first target will be the uptrend line from 2009 low at around USD 470. The objective low will be about USD 320. That is the level we saw in 2010/2011. Unless Apple comes out with a stellar product, outlook remains bleak for now. Chart 1: Apple Chart on 9 Nov
Chart 2: Apple Chart Today

Monday, December 3, 2012

USDJPY Double Top: Targets 80.6-81.2

The move in USDJPY upwards has been too fast and based on a massive QE plan if Abe gets elected. Fact is Abe hasn't been elected yet and even so, will he be able to act on the QE plan he has proposed which has led to a huge move in USDJPY lately. In any case, there seem to be a double top in the daily charts right now. I will sell here up to 82.5 for a target to 80.60-81.22. Closer to the elections on 16th this month, USDJPY bulls may get jittery and start winding down the longs started from 79 levels. This will add fuel to my short position from here.