Update on Gold (still maintain sell, target 1026-1032

It is grinding around here and despite some test on the upside, I will argue that gold is still bearish mid-term. I am looking for it to correct down to 1026-1032

Sterling testing a 30 year uptrend on downside again, could go back down to 1.05 if broken forcefully.

SPX likely to range from here (1164 to 1055) for Q2 Q3 2010

To keep the thesis consistent, I am still comparing with 2004 (technically, at least). The recovery off 2003 Mar lows topped out at 1164 in Q1 2004 and went into small bear channel for a while before breakout eventually. In 2005, 1164 worked nicely as a nice support in 2 out of 3 corrections and was only broken in 2008. So arguably, this would be a nice level to sell into if you believe this thesis of range bound market in 2010. Beyond that, 1217-1226 probably would cap.

For now, may want to sell into 1164 for a range trade down to 1014 (previous 38.2% retracement resistance turned support). This assumes no melt up which could still be possible if people are forced to chase the market.

Long term look at S & P and Hang Seng

I regret not looking at these long term charts. What a nice trendline on the quarterly charts. If it has been plotted last year, it would have prompted me to throw the entire sink into the stock market in March last year.

Going forward, I will start looking at quarterly and monthly charts to look for better clues.