Apple: An Update (Bearish Call was right)

This is an update on my previous blog on Apple on Nov 9 this year (http://tecknicaloutlook.blogspot.sg/2012/11/apple-is-doomed-like-microsoft-of-2000.html). Look at Chart 1. After the breakdown from touching all time high to above USD 700, I argued that it was forming a massive head and shoulder reversal. At the point in time, it would have a last rally which is to form the right shoulder top. The rally ought to go back up to 600-640 and I was right. The recent high was USD 598. This was a good chance to take profits on any existing long positions. Look at Chart 2. Now it has fallen again and is nesting right on the head and shoulder reversal neckline at USD 518. It may just consolidate around here before heading lower. My first target will be the uptrend line from 2009 low at around USD 470. The objective low will be about USD 320. That is the level we saw in 2010/2011. Unless Apple comes out with a stellar product, outlook remains bleak for now. Chart 1: Apple Chart on 9 Nov

Chart 2: Apple Chart Today

USDJPY Double Top: Targets 80.6-81.2

The move in USDJPY upwards has been too fast and based on a massive QE plan if Abe gets elected. Fact is Abe hasn't been elected yet and even so, will he be able to act on the QE plan he has proposed which has led to a huge move in USDJPY lately. In any case, there seem to be a double top in the daily charts right now. I will sell here up to 82.5 for a target to 80.60-81.22. Closer to the elections on 16th this month, USDJPY bulls may get jittery and start winding down the longs started from 79 levels. This will add fuel to my short position from here.

China A Share Weakness Continues (Buy nearer to 1900)

The leadership transition was smooth but the optimism has given way to continued weaknesses in the China A Share market. In the longer term, I am still positive China but I like to see the current weakness work its way down before going long China A Share. First support comes in at 1900 where the red horizontal line shown should hold. Stronger support comes in at 2008 market low at 1800 (the white horizontal line below the red line).

S & P 500: A few good reasons to go long risk across the board from here to 1370.

Chart 1: SPX Daily

Chart 2: SPX Weekly

Chart 3: NYMO Daily

Chart 4: VIX Daily

Chart 5: EUR Weekly

A few good reasons to go long from here till year end: 1. Chart 1: Triple top breakdown price objective been met around 1375 with daily oversold indicators and MACD showing bullish divergence. 2. Chart 2: SPX is finding support at 1380 (as identified yesterday being uptrend line from June 2011). 3. Chart 3: NYMO (market breadth)at a range low which has held for past four months at SPX market lows and we are here now. 4. Chart 4: VIX not breaking any higher and showing bearish divergence here below 20. 5. Chart 5: EUR Daily and Weekly recovering from overbought levels and finding support at 38.2% retracement and also forming a bullish flag. The above call will wrong if S & P 500 breaks below 1352. I am looking at year end upside of 1460-1474 for SPX 500 from here.

Apple is doomed like Microsoft of 2000? Get out of it at this last leg rally to USD 600-640

Microsoft in the tech boom of 2000 was the market darling. It could do not wrong at that time and was targetted to be the first trillion company but post 2000,it broke down and never recovered past its all time price since. Apple looks like following Microsoft's path. Despite the Iphone 5 and Ipad success, the share price after touching USD 700 has broken down sharply. Key support at USD 600 was taken out too. Now after touching a interim low of USD 530 or so, I think it is ripe for a short term rally. However, this short term rally is probably finishing off a massive head and shoulder top reversal move. This is the last leg or right shoulder move which should bring price up to USD 600 to USD 640 potentially. Sell your holdings if it does move to the USD 600-640 price level for the next leg down will probably be cruel.

Apple: Failed Attempt to go above 700 sees it down to 600 at least from here

My prev post mentioned that Apple will rebound from oversold levels and make an attempt to go above 700. It did rebound but has since broken back down again. This failure sees it breaks two key support. So I think it will drift down to 600 first in the near term.

What's wrong with Apple? Look to buy here if optimistic about its outlook.

Apple touched 700 to a high of 705 on 18th Sep after selling near 2 million units of the Iphone 5 in the first 24 hours. Even after selling record 5 million units thereafter, the feel good factor seems to have disappeared. In fact, it has fallen 6.5% since. Right now, it is still hovering above the 50 day moving average around 650 and with daily indicators oversold, looks like will rebound from here. I will put a buy here for another upside attempt at 700 with stop loss below 650 or so.