China A Share Weakness Continues (Buy nearer to 1900)

The leadership transition was smooth but the optimism has given way to continued weaknesses in the China A Share market. In the longer term, I am still positive China but I like to see the current weakness work its way down before going long China A Share. First support comes in at 1900 where the red horizontal line shown should hold. Stronger support comes in at 2008 market low at 1800 (the white horizontal line below the red line).

S & P 500: A few good reasons to go long risk across the board from here to 1370.

Chart 1: SPX Daily

Chart 2: SPX Weekly

Chart 3: NYMO Daily

Chart 4: VIX Daily

Chart 5: EUR Weekly

A few good reasons to go long from here till year end: 1. Chart 1: Triple top breakdown price objective been met around 1375 with daily oversold indicators and MACD showing bullish divergence. 2. Chart 2: SPX is finding support at 1380 (as identified yesterday being uptrend line from June 2011). 3. Chart 3: NYMO (market breadth)at a range low which has held for past four months at SPX market lows and we are here now. 4. Chart 4: VIX not breaking any higher and showing bearish divergence here below 20. 5. Chart 5: EUR Daily and Weekly recovering from overbought levels and finding support at 38.2% retracement and also forming a bullish flag. The above call will wrong if S & P 500 breaks below 1352. I am looking at year end upside of 1460-1474 for SPX 500 from here.

Apple is doomed like Microsoft of 2000? Get out of it at this last leg rally to USD 600-640

Microsoft in the tech boom of 2000 was the market darling. It could do not wrong at that time and was targetted to be the first trillion company but post 2000,it broke down and never recovered past its all time price since. Apple looks like following Microsoft's path. Despite the Iphone 5 and Ipad success, the share price after touching USD 700 has broken down sharply. Key support at USD 600 was taken out too. Now after touching a interim low of USD 530 or so, I think it is ripe for a short term rally. However, this short term rally is probably finishing off a massive head and shoulder top reversal move. This is the last leg or right shoulder move which should bring price up to USD 600 to USD 640 potentially. Sell your holdings if it does move to the USD 600-640 price level for the next leg down will probably be cruel.