Friday, August 29, 2008

Quant model flashes sell on S & P on 21st Aug

My model has flipped from buy in mid July to sell now. I can't predict where the market goes but with increased probability, I have more conviction in my trades now.

Could either sell the S & P futures outright or buy the Proshare Short ETF for S & P (Code is SH).

EUR to rally towards 1.5130 by mid Sep?

This is from wave point of view.

EUR is rebounding from Wave C or Wave 3 lows and next move is a up move which is wave 4 and should retrace at least 38.2% of the loss from 1.6040 to 1.4570. This move should bring us back up to 1.5130 potentially.

Dollar Probably has topped here


There is strong probability that US Index has reached a short term top. And we could see some possible downside from here.

My conviction stems from the following:

1. Strong overhead resistance line near 78
2. Tom Demark Sequential Sell Countdown 13 near here
3. MACD Turning down
4. CCI (Momentum) indicator turning south too from overbought

Near term support is at 76 first followed by 75.

For short term trade, could buy EUR, GBP especially the latter which have fallen the most. Gold could look to aim for 900 as well from here (currently at 830)