USD: Time to cover shorts and turn long

At the same time US equities are rallying, I am seeing a similar rally in USD. This is one divergence I am looking closely (more rate cuts should equate to a weaker USD) but USD is proving more resilient for the past few days.

This is an overdue technical rebound. I don't have any figures to show now but will do so soon. In any case, looking to buy EUR at possibly 1.4520 and CHF perhaps at 1.13 and higher. GBP is something I am staying out at the moment. Will look to short some carry trades as they go higher as well.

That's all for now. Will update as and when I see new changes. 

US Stock Takes: Cautious Buy

After Wednesday's impressive rally, my quantitative model has turned to a buy signal. Overall sentiment remains fragile but after a five wave correction from October top, the counter rally is overdue.

I expect this rally to retrace back at least 50% of the losses from mid October. Using S & P as guide, this rally may have headwinds from 1500 to 1540 and at this area, will watch my quant model for any turning signals again.

Till then, enjoy this rally underpin by Fed put once  again. 

EURJPY: Comparing Aug sell off and now (similar)

Comparing Channel A (Aug sell off) and channel B (present)

Looking at Aug sell off and current sell off, the pattern of the technical chart of EURJPY is pretty similar.

Point 1: MAE (Moving average exponential) 20 cutting below MAE 50.
Point 2: ST STO K line rising above D line initially and then cutting back down viciously
Point 3: MACD remaining below its signal line and in negative zone

Point 1, Point 3 have occurred and now I am waiting for ST STO to cut below D line to have all 3 points occurring together. For some reason, 3 is a magical number in TA and if that occurs, can short some more. Reckon that could be a break below 160.

Downside target remains at 155-156 at the bottom of the current bear channel (B) and a full blooded sell can be initiated if 155-156 gives way, and could target 150-151.
(suggest to put trailing stop at 155-156 if reaches there and also OCO take profit at 150-151)

Teck Mechanical Trading Model

	Return	Strike Rate
GBP	19.24%	53.66%
EUR	24.78%	52.94%
JPY	15.23%	57.14%
CHF	20.84%	48.2%
Crude Oil	81.47%	50.00%
Total	161.56%	261.89%
Annual	23.08%	52.38%

I used to be an impulsive trader and it only ended up benefiting the brokers who service my trading account. Fed up with my losses, I decided to do something about it.

Using actual trading data and after doing some internal cleaning and initial back testing, I have come up with a mechanical sort of trading model which will generate buy or sell signals on each instrument and such signals are generated based on different set of technical indicators.


The table shows the results of my trading model based on 6 to 7 years of data and the returns on each instrument are tabulated. Over this period, the trading model showed an annualized return of 23.08% and the strike (success) rate was about 52.38%.

Quite excited over the test results and looking to improvise on it and testing on a wider spectrum of products.

Do email me at weeteck22@gmail.com if you have any queries.

US Stock Takes: Maintain Sell

The above chart is a self-created proprietary indicator and so far, has worked quite well, generating a positive return of 22% since Mar 1 2007.

Despite Tuesday short rally, it was still on sell mode and the outcome was very clear yesterday. Outlook remains bearish withS & P is hovering below 200 day MA support and testing the 50 MA weekly support soon.

Looking at the weight of evidence, any rally will be countertrend and I will look to sell into rally.

Will update as and when there are changes.

Stay tuned.

FX - Nov

Dollar

I think this website is good for beginners and professionals.