S & P 500: Model Flashing Buy now

My model is flashing buy now. Can look to buy futures or long the ETF, SPY. 

Quant model flashes sell on S & P on 21st Aug

My model has flipped from buy in mid July to sell now. I can't predict where the market goes but with increased probability, I have more conviction in my trades now.

Could either sell the S & P futures outright or buy the Proshare Short ETF for S & P (Code is SH).

EUR to rally towards 1.5130 by mid Sep?

This is from wave point of view.

EUR is rebounding from Wave C or Wave 3 lows and next move is a up move which is wave 4 and should retrace at least 38.2% of the loss from 1.6040 to 1.4570. This move should bring us back up to 1.5130 potentially.

Dollar Probably has topped here

There is strong probability that US Index has reached a short term top. And we could see some possible downside from here.

My conviction stems from the following:

1. Strong overhead resistance line near 78
2. Tom Demark Sequential Sell Countdown 13 near here
3. MACD Turning down
4. CCI (Momentum) indicator turning south too from overbought

Near term support is at 76 first followed by 75.

For short term trade, could buy EUR, GBP especially the latter which have fallen the most. Gold could look to aim for 900 as well from here (currently at 830)

Bear Market Rally Over: Sell S & P

Using 2 SD regression, the bear market rally is hitting a resistance area and look like topping over. This means the bear market rally could be over. Can look to sell now.

GBP Weekly : Head and Shoulder Reversal

The weekly GBP trend is down and it is potentially heading towards the Head and Shoulder Support at 1.9250. A clear break of this trend line could see market move towards a measured target of 1.7820 (2.0910-1.9480 = 1430 pips) from 1.9250.

Suggesting a sell here for this ultimate target. Along the way, there could be chances for countertrend rallies. Will post once I see any trades.

What I learnt trading the markets and losing money as a result

I don't consider myself as an amateur trader yet my trading is so amateurish in style. The outcome for such a style is predictable and not surprisingly, I am still in a net negative position.

I have read books about trading, technical analysis, interviews with traders and so on but yet to no avail. The greatest enemy is not anything external but actually myself and my mental state.

Cardinal sins that I have observed about myself are trading like a gambler (over trading), no discipline, no focus, no methodology and being too emotional. No wonder, I keep feeding the markets or providing more commission to the brokers. 

As I am writing this, I am taking a break from trading and hope to resuscitate it soon. First and foremost, I must treat trading seriously, be more disciplined, focussed and really have a firm methodology to trading. If not, it is best I stay neutral in the markets and remain an emotionless forecaster. 

EURJPY: Breaking key trendline at 159, looking to target 150 next

EURJPY broke a key trendline drawn from mid 2005 at 159 and now downside targetting 150 from here. Risk carry trades unwinding is forcing this pair down.

Eventually a more lower level that EURJPY could reach is 141-142. At this level, I shudder to think how much the equity markets could have fallen by then.

GBP: Sell into rally

Looking at the above GBP chart, the weekly uptrend channel was broken and downside is actually 1.92 from here. Currently holding up well above the 2005 high support line near 1.95, any rally in GBP near term will be a good chance to sell and target 1.92 eventually.

Gold hits 900 as per my prediction

Three weeks on, I look at gold chart and indeed, it has hit the USD 900 that I have predicted on the firm breakout of the triangle formation.

The worst thing thing being a trader is to have a good set up and miss the trade altogether. It is a whopping 9.1% to be made from the move from 825 to 900 and unfortunately, I did not put on the trade due to the some stupid reasons which I won't reveal right now.

Right now, it looks like it is going higher. There is slight divergence and I will wait for pullbacks to establish long positions again.

Till then, have a good week.